Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index formed a candlestick with a long lower wick during Tuesday's trading session and recovered well towards the end of the afternoon, rising more than 20 points from its lowest point of 1,848. Thus, the index successfully tested the MA20 line and created a relatively positive candlestick pattern. Bank stocks contributed significantly to supporting the index; meanwhile, PNJ, MSN, and VHM stocks restrained the VN-Index's upward momentum. Liquidity decreased compared to the previous trading session, falling below the 20-day average. A positive sign was that foreign investors reversed to net buying, although the net buying value remained quite modest.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 4.75 points (+0.26%), closing at 1,848.25 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 2.77 points (-0.93%), reaching 293.74 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges decreased to 18 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 641 million shares traded. Foreign investors reversed to net buying, although the value remained limited, with a net purchase of 34 billion VND during the session. The stocks experiencing the strongest net selling were VHM, MSN, and SHB... Conversely, typical net buying included MCH, HDB, and BSR… 

▶ LPB (+4.87%), BSR (+3.19%), and MBB (+1.78%) were the three stocks contributing most to supporting the index. Conversely, VHM (-2.60%), THD (-7.62%), and MSN (-2.7%) were the three stocks that took the most points away from the market.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continued to successfully test the MA20 line with a positive candlestick pattern. Despite low liquidity, strong demand persists during corrections, with no signs of panic selling, indicating continued market support. We believe the current fluctuations are primarily accumulation phases, contributing to price consolidation and laying the groundwork for an upward trend in the coming period.

In the short term, we expect the VN-Index to continue fluctuating within the 1,850–1,870 point range to build a solid price base before establishing a new trend. If the 1,850 support level is broken, the index may retreat to fill the price gap around 1,800 points before seeking balanced demand again.

In the base medium-term scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Besides external factors, the domestic market is also supported by policies promoting economic growth, abundant liquidity, and expectations of increased passive capital flows after Vietnam is officially upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE Russell from September 2026. The synergy of these factors could create momentum for the market to enter a new growth cycle, with the VN-Index aiming for a target range of 2,000–2,100 points in a positive scenario.

In the negative medium-term scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war period. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. Given the negative developments, risky asset classes in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: Investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation and strong business growth rather than solely focusing on VN-Index fluctuations for medium-term positions. In the short term, consider stocks that have been heavily sold off and are showing signs of recovery, such as insurance, technology, and real estate stocks. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.