Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index experienced a sharp correction in the first trading session of the week, at one point falling to a low of 1,830 in the afternoon, before recovering in the ATC session and closing with a decrease of nearly 19 points. Selling pressure originated from the Electricity sector following information about irregularities in business operations of enterprises as well as news of a reduction in wind power prices in 2026, then quickly spread to other sectors. Market liquidity increased significantly, however, it was heavily concentrated in stock groups that had risen sharply recently. At the same time, foreign investors also widened their net selling range, with the largest net selling volume concentrated in VIC shares (-2,253 billion VND) and executed through the order matching channel.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by 18.58 points (-1%), closing at 1,843.50 points; The HNX-Index fell 11.06 points (-3.6%), reaching 296.51 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges surged to 24.2 trillion VND, equivalent to approximately 905 million shares traded. Foreign investors increased net selling pressure, with a net selling value of 2,794 billion VND during today's trading session. The stocks experiencing the strongest net selling were VIC, SSI, and BID. Conversely, FPT, VPB, and VND were the stocks with the most net buying activity.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index experienced a relatively strong correction, retreating to test the MA20 moving average and still holding this support level at the close. Liquidity increased significantly; however, selling pressure was mainly concentrated in stocks that had risen sharply recently. Conversely, the banking and securities sectors continued to show positive signs, with strong buying demand during corrections, indicating that capital remains in the market and is ready to absorb short-term supply.

In the short term, we expect the VN-Index to continue fluctuating within the 1,850–1,870 point range to build a solid price base before establishing a new trend. If the 1,850 point support level is broken, the index may retreat to fill the price gap around 1,800 points before seeking balanced buying pressure again. The current fluctuations are considered necessary to consolidate the price base and attract more capital during the accumulation phase.

In the base medium-term scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support the return of capital to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Besides external factors, the domestic market is also supported by policies promoting economic growth, abundant liquidity, and expectations of increased passive capital flows after Vietnam is officially upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE Russell from September 2026. The synergy of these factors could create momentum for the market to enter a new growth cycle, with the VN-Index aiming for a target range of 2,000–2,100 points in a positive scenario.

In the negative medium-term scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war period. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. Given this negative development, risky assets in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: Investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation and strong earnings growth rather than solely focusing on VN-Index fluctuations for medium-term positions. In the short term, consider stocks that have been heavily sold and are showing signs of recovery, such as insurance, technology, and real estate stocks. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.