Vietnam Insight

▶ The market traded fairly evenly around the reference level on Tuesday and closed with a 5-point increase. In contrast to yesterday's performance, VIC and VHM acted as leading indicators supporting the index, while the banking sector largely declined, hindering the market's upward momentum. Meanwhile, the securities sector played a more moderate role, attracting more capital. Overall, the current situation remains largely unchanged; although liquidity has improved, it is still insufficient to create a breakthrough, and the high degree of polarization prevents the upward trend from spreading uniformly across many sectors.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 5.04 points (+0.27%), closing at 1,860.01 points; the HNX-Index fell 1.52 points (-4.83%), reaching 313.16 points. Liquidity on all three exchanges improved slightly compared to the previous session, reaching 20.3 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 756 million shares traded. Foreign investors widened their net selling range, with a net selling value of 1,188 billion VND. The stocks with the strongest net selling were VPB, FPT, and VNM; conversely, the stocks with the strongest net buying included GEX, VIC, and PVD.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index rose mainly due to the Vingroup group; most other sectors traded sideways or saw slight declines. The market hasn't seen a significant trend change yet; however, capital is steadily shifting into the financial sector, particularly banking and securities.

In the short term, we believe the VN-Index will trade within the 1,850-1,870 range and will remain heavily dependent on the performance of Vingroup companies. The market is currently awaiting strong catalysts from earnings results, macroeconomic policies, or new capital inflows to trigger a return of capital to sectors other than Vingroup.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Besides external factors, the domestic market is also supported by policies promoting economic growth, abundant liquidity, and expectations of increased passive capital flows after Vietnam is officially upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE Russell from September 2026. The synergy of these factors could create momentum for the market to enter a new growth cycle, with the VN-Index aiming for a target range of 2,000–2,100 points in the positive scenario.

In the negative-case scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war period. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. Given the negative developments, risky asset classes in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: Investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation and strong business growth rather than solely focusing on VN-Index fluctuations for medium-term positions. In the short term, consider stocks that have been heavily sold off and are showing signs of recovery, such as insurance, technology, and real estate stocks. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.