Vietnam Insight

▶ The market declined in the first trading session of the week with low volume, and the index remained in the red for most of the trading time. Leading the decline were VinGroup stocks, with VHM and VIC falling by -3.65% and -4.74% respectively, contributing approximately 22 points to the index's decline. Conversely, many bank stocks saw relatively good gains, notably STB, MBB, and VIB… Overall, liquidity remained low, indicating a lack of clear and synchronized recovery signals from investors. However, a positive point is that despite the index decline, low liquidity suggests that selling pressure was not too strong.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 16.94 points (-0.9%), closing at 1,854.97 points; the HNX-Index rose 0.16 points (+0.05%), reaching 317.99 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges reached only 18.6 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 677 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers, with a net selling value of 788 billion VND. The stocks with the strongest net selling were VHM, VIC, and FPT; conversely, the stocks with the strongest net buying included MWG, VCB, and PVD.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index declined mainly due to a sharp drop in the Vingroup group; most other sectors saw gains, improving market breadth. The number of rising stocks also exceeded the number of falling stocks. The banking sector is attracting more attention from investors. However, the main structure of most sectors remains sideways with low liquidity.

In the short term, we believe the VN-Index will trade around the 1,850 – 1,870 range and will still heavily depend on the performance of the Vingroup group. The market is currently awaiting strong catalysts from business results, macroeconomic policies, or new capital inflows to trigger a return of investment into sectors other than Vingroup.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be added to MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital inflows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could aim for the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In the negative-case scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. With these negative developments, risky assets in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.