Vietnam Insight

▶ The recovery trend temporarily paused on Thursday as the VN-Index formed a red candlestick, falling nearly 15 points. Contrary to previous sessions, this time the pressure on the index came from the VinGroup group, with VHM and VIC contributing approximately 11 points to the VN-Index decline. On the other side, TCB, VJC, and STB played a relatively good role in preventing the index from falling too deeply. Liquidity continued to seek new lows, with trading value on the HOSE reaching only about 16 trillion VND, and the entire market at 17 trillion VND, indicating a lack of clear and synchronized recovery signals from investors. However, a positive point is that although the index fell, the low liquidity suggests that selling pressure was not too strong.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 14.95 points (-0.8%), closing at 1,863.07 points. The HNX-Index rose 1.2 points (+0.38%), reaching 319.44 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges was extremely low, reaching only 17.1 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 564 million shares traded. Foreign investors widened their net selling range, with a net selling value of 1,073 billion VND. The stocks with the strongest net selling were VHM, CTG, and FPT; conversely, the stocks with the strongest net buying included LPB, POW, and BMP.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index fell 16 points amidst market liquidity slump to its lowest level in over a year. The index's performance remains significantly influenced by stocks within the Vingroup ecosystem, while most other stocks fluctuate around their reference levels. Notably, the sharp decline in liquidity indicates a cautious sentiment among both buyers and sellers. Capital is not yet ready to increase its holdings, while supply pressure is no longer as intense, resulting in a tug-of-war in the market.

In the short term, we believe the VN-Index may experience periods of volatility or a shakeout to retest the 1,850-point support level. This is a necessary development to consolidate price levels and create consensus among capital flows before entering a clearer trend. The market is currently awaiting strong catalysts from earnings results, macroeconomic policies, or new capital inflows to trigger a return of capital and open up a new growth phase.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be added to MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital inflows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could aim for the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In the negative-case scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. With these negative developments, risky assets in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.