Vietnam Insight

▶ The market maintained its positive momentum on Wednesday, closing at 1,878 and only about 50 points away from its previous peak around 1,930. Market sentiment remained largely unchanged, with the main upward momentum coming from the VinGroup group of stocks, with VHM and VIC contributing approximately 6 points to the overall increase in the VN-Index. In addition, several individual stocks also maintained good gains, such as LPB, NVL, and MWG, which surged towards the end of the session. Liquidity remained stagnant, indicating hesitation from investors as a clear upward trend has yet to be established. Overall, the index is not accurately reflecting the general market situation due to the high degree of polarization among stocks; although the index is close to its previous peak, most stocks are still testing the bottom levels established in March.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 8.98 points (+0.48%), closing at 1,878.02 points; the HNX-Index fell 8.14 points (-2.49%), reaching 318.24 points. Total trading volume across all three exchanges reached only 19 trillion VND, not matching the index gains. Foreign investors continued net selling of 612 billion VND during the session and showed no signs of reversal. The stocks with the strongest net selling were FPT, CTG, and VPB; conversely, the stocks with the strongest net buying included VIC, LPB, and NVL.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continued its upward trend, however, the main driving force still came from the Vingroup ecosystem stocks, while most stocks on the market did not experience significant breakthroughs. Liquidity remained low, reflecting a relative balance between buyers and sellers. Notably, after the recent correction, many stocks have returned to more attractive valuation levels, while profit-taking pressure showed signs of decreasing. This helped the market maintain a stable price level despite the lack of short-term growth momentum.

In the coming period, we expect the VN-Index to continue its positive trend and aim for the next resistance zone around 1,850 points. Improved liquidity will play a crucial role in strengthening investor confidence and confirming the return of capital, thereby supporting the index to complete its current consolidation phase and extend its upward momentum in the next period.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be added to MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital inflows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could aim for the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In the negative-case scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. With these negative developments, risky assets in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.