Vietnam Insight

▶ The market surged in points during the first trading session of the week, with the VN-Index closing at 1,858 points, recording an increase of over 33 points. The majority of this increase came from the VIN group of stocks, with VHM and VIC hitting their upper limits, VRE rising 4.6%, and VPL increasing nearly 1%. These four stocks contributed over 35 points to the overall market increase, even exceeding the VN-Index's gain today. Capital flow remained cautious, with total market trading value reaching approximately 16 trillion VND. Foreign investors narrowed their net selling, supported by significant net buying in VIC (373 billion VND).

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 33.38 points (+1.83%), closing at 1,857.91 points. The HNX-Index fell 3.77 points (-1.16%), reaching 321.06 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges decreased to approximately 15.7 trillion VND, corresponding to about 580 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 178 billion VND during the session, with FPT, VNM, and TCB being the stocks most heavily net sold; conversely, VIC, VHM, and BID were the stocks most net bought.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index recorded a gain of over 33 points during the session; however, the main impetus came from the breakout of stocks belonging to the Vingroup ecosystem. Therefore, the positive performance of the index does not reflect a uniform improvement across the entire market, as most stocks remained sideways or showed mixed results. Trading volume continued to remain low, indicating that capital flows are still cautious and have not yet spread strongly. Nevertheless, it is noteworthy that the market maintained stable movement, without strong selling pressure or significant risk signals.

In the coming period, we expect the VN-Index to continue its positive trend and aim for the next resistance zone around 1,850 points. Improved liquidity will play a crucial role in strengthening investor confidence and confirming the return of capital, thereby supporting the index to complete its current consolidation phase and extend its upward momentum in the next period.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be added to MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital inflows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could aim for the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In the negative-case scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. With these negative developments, risky assets in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.