Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index rose sharply on Thursday, driven entirely by VinGroup stocks. The trio of VIC, VHM, and VRE surged to their maximum allowed limits from the morning session; VPL also recorded a 1.9% increase. These four stocks alone contributed approximately 34 points, exceeding the VN-Index's 24-point gain and significantly outpacing other stocks on the market. The pressure of derivative expiration caused many stocks to shift from gains to losses during the ATC (After-Trading Closing) session. Thus, despite the strong index increase, most stocks remained relatively stagnant. Liquidity decreased slightly to 18.8 trillion VND, indicating that the money flow did not correspond to the index's performance, and foreign investors continued to be strong net sellers.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 24.27 points (+1.34%), closing at 1,830.47 points. The HNX-Index rose 5.96 points (+1.8%), reaching 336.16 points. Total trading volume across all three exchanges reached approximately 18.8 trillion VND, equivalent to about 711 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 1,884 billion VND during the session, with FPT, VHM, and TCB being the stocks most heavily net sold; conversely, VIC, PC1, and MBB were the stocks most net bought.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continued its relatively normal consolidation phase during the derivatives expiration session, as investor sentiment was somewhat more cautious. Although the index received significant support from the Vingroup group, most stocks on the market only fluctuated sideways or experienced slight corrections with low liquidity. The overall trend has not changed significantly, and the market has not yet shown any worrying risk signals.

In the coming period, we expect the VN-Index to continue its positive trend and aim for the next resistance zone around 1,850 points. Improved liquidity will play a crucial role in strengthening investor confidence and confirming the return of capital, thereby supporting the index to complete its current consolidation phase and extend its upward momentum in the next period.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be added to MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital inflows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could aim for the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In the negative-case scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. With these negative developments, risky assets in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.