Vietnam Insight

▶ The market traded sideways on Wednesday, closing down 1.7 points, only slightly lower than the reference price, and recovering quite well from the session's low of 1,788. The banking sector continued to attract capital, with many stocks showing good gains such as MSB, BID, STB, VCB… The transportation and port sector also performed well, notably VJC and VSC. Conversely, VIC and VHM continued to put pressure on the index due to the news that VHM had stopped expanding its land holdings. Market liquidity improved, and foreign investors widened their net selling, with net selling in VIC alone reaching VND 2,236 billion.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 1.74 points (-0.1%), closing at 1,806.20 points. The HNX-Index rose 10.58 points (+3.31%), reaching 330.20 points. Total trading volume across all three exchanges reached approximately 25.8 trillion VND, equivalent to about 905 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold 3,175 billion VND during the session, with VIC, FPT, and VHM being the most heavily net-sold stocks; conversely, HPG, SSI, and SHB were the most net-bought stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index is currently consolidating within the support zone of 1,790–1,800 points with improved liquidity, reflecting continued capital flow in the market. Despite pressure from Vingroup stocks, the overall trend has not changed significantly, and the market currently shows no alarming risk signals.

In the coming period, we expect the VN-Index to continue its positive trend and aim for the next resistance zone around 1,850 points. Improved liquidity will play a crucial role in strengthening investor confidence and confirming the return of capital, thereby supporting the index to complete its current consolidation phase and extend its upward momentum in the next period.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be added to MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital inflows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could aim for the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In the negative-case scenario: Global reserves have decreased sharply during the recent war. If no agreement is reached in June-July, oil prices are likely to surge during the peak summer months. With these negative developments, risky assets in general and the VN-Index face a deeper correction (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.