Vietnam Insight

▶ The market continued to trade on Wednesday, June 10th, with low liquidity. The VN-Index opened around the reference price, rose towards the end of the afternoon session, and closed with a gain of over 10 points. Overall, most stocks did not experience significant price fluctuations; the index's increase was mainly supported by a few key stocks such as VIC (+1.45%) and BID (+1.22%). Foreign investors continued to be net sellers, with the financial sector experiencing the strongest net selling. In general, the lack of supporting information and the sustained selling pressure from foreign investors resulted in low market liquidity.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 10.66 points (+0.59%), closing at 1,803.71 points; the HNX-Index fell 4.59 points (-1.5%), reaching 301.15 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges reached approximately 12 trillion VND after excluding block trades, corresponding to about 540 million shares traded through the order matching channel. Foreign investors continued their net selling trend, net selling 580 billion VND during the session, with MBB, VPB, and SSI being the stocks most heavily net sold. Conversely, VJC, CII, and MWG were the stocks with the most net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: A Selling pressure has eased around key support levels, while selective buying is returning. Although market breadth has improved, overall liquidity remains low, indicating that investor risk appetite has not fully recovered. The improvement in liquidity is mainly concentrated in mid-cap stocks, especially real estate stocks like PDR, NVL, CII..., while large-cap stocks remain cautious. Inflows into ETFs have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, however, overall foreign capital continues to maintain a net selling trend. Investor sentiment generally remains cautious, with capital selectively flowing into sectors with strong growth stories or supporting factors. Given the low level of capital participation, the market is likely to continue fluctuating within a narrow range until a sufficiently strong catalyst, either positive or negative, emerges to shape the next trend. In our base scenario, we expect the VN-Index to reach the 2,000 – 2,100 point range by the end of 2026, supported by sustained positive corporate earnings growth, along with a gradual improvement in market liquidity and investor confidence. Technically, the VN-Index closed above the 200-day moving average (MA200), while the RSI remained stable around 35. This suggests that although market momentum remains weak, selling pressure has somewhat eased compared to previous sessions.

Foreign investors continued their net selling trend despite market valuations having adjusted to significantly more reasonable levels compared to the peak in Q3/2025. Recently, global capital flows have mainly focused on AI-driven narratives, while US-Iran tensions and high oil prices continue to put pressure on economies dependent on oil imports. We believe that the trend of capital flows could reverse if geopolitical tensions ease, thereby triggering a reallocation of funds to markets and sectors unrelated to AI. Notably, foreign investors were strong net buyers during the market's breakout in 2025, with the banking sector playing a leading role during that period.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.