Vietnam Insight

▶ The market experienced a sharp decline in the first trading session of the week, primarily driven by VIC shares, which fell by -5.8%, contributing 19 points to the overall 48-point decline. Many other stocks also faced strong selling pressure, especially in the afternoon as the market approached its closing session. Red dominated across a wide range of sectors, including Finance, Real Estate, and Consumer Goods. A few stocks bucked the trend and gained points, such as NVL, HCM, and KDH… Liquidity increased as selling pressure intensified, and foreign investors continued their net selling with a value of 554 billion VND.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 48.37 points (-2.63%), closing at 1,790.54 points; the HNX-Index rose 4.57 points (+1.56%), reaching 298.36 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges reached approximately 20 trillion VND, corresponding to about 792 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers with a net selling value of 554 billion VND, with FPT, VHM, and MSN being the stocks most heavily sold. Conversely, VCB and ACB saw significant net buying with a value of 98 billion VND.

▶ Technical perspective: Escalating tensions in the Middle East, coupled with a better-than-expected US jobs report, have put pressure on investor risk sentiment as the market reassesses the outlook for oil prices and the likelihood of the Fed continuing to tighten monetary policy in the second half of 2026. Against this backdrop, the VN-Index fell by more than 48 points this week, retreating to test the upper end of its previous trading range of 1,600–1,800 points. Notably, stocks related to Vingroup – the main driver of the recent market recovery – faced increased profit-taking pressure, contributing more than 25 points to the index's decline, equivalent to more than half of the total points lost by the entire market. Meanwhile, the rest of the market experienced a relatively healthy correction, with most stocks declining within normal ranges and liquidity remaining around average levels.

Technically, the VN-Index has lost its 50-day moving average (MA50) and is heading towards the MA200 around 1,750 points. The RSI indicator has fallen to 33.9 points, approaching the oversold zone. Simultaneously, the valuations of many stocks have returned to levels seen during previous recessions, thus opening up increasingly attractive buying opportunities for long-term investors.

Foreign investors continued their net selling trend despite market valuations having adjusted to significantly more reasonable levels compared to their peaks in Q3/2025. Recently, global capital flows have mainly focused on AI-driven narratives, while US-Iran tensions and high oil prices continue to pressure economies dependent on oil imports. We believe that the capital flow trend may reverse if geopolitical tensions ease, thereby triggering a reallocation of funds to markets and sectors not related to AI. Notably, foreign investors were strong net buyers during the market's breakout in 2025, with the banking sector playing a leading role during that period.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.