Macro/ Strategy

Macroeconomic outlook

Despite ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, Vietnam remains committed to achieving double-digit economic growth in 2026 and in the years leading up to 2030. Given the Government’s strong determination and appropriate policy measures, we believe that this growth target is well within reach. To achieve this objective, industrial production, public investment, and the capital market are expected to serve as the key growth drivers of the economy in 2026. Under a 10% GDP growth scenario, Vietnam’s Industrial Production Index (IIP) is projected to increase by approximately 14% in 2026. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain under control at around 4.5%, while the exchange rate is forecast to stay relatively stable, depreciating by only about 1% over the year.

Stock market outlook

In April 2026, FTSE Russell officially reaffirmed Vietnam’s progress toward its upgrade from a Frontier Market to a Secondary Emerging Market. With the official reclassification taking effect in September 2026, Vietnam is expected to attract additional inflows from global investment funds, generating positive spillover effects on market liquidity, valuations, and overall market size.

The stock market will be underpinned by the intrinsic strength of the economy. We project earnings growth for listed companies to reach approximately 22% in 2026. Based on a target P/E of 14.5x - 15x, we estimate the fair value range for the VN-Index to be between 1,975 and 2,043. In a bullish scenario, assuming a target P/E of 15.7x, we anticipate the VN-Index to surpass the 2,146 point threshold.

Potential Sectors

Following the strong market leadership of the Vingroup-related stocks in the first half of 2026, we expect market liquidity and investor interest to expand to other sectors, including banking, basic materials, and securities, in the second half of the year. At the same time, stocks that stand to benefit from foreign capital inflows driven by the anticipated upgrade of Vietnam's stock market are likely to emerge as key investment highlights in the coming period.