Vietnam Insight

▶ The market continued its recovery on Thursday, gaining over 12 points (+0.69%), however, liquidity plummeted to a record low, with the trading value only around 16 trillion VND on the HOSE. The banking sector contributed positively to the index's rise, with many stocks performing well such as STB, VIB, BID, etc.; supported by the price increase of VIC and VHM after a series of consecutive declines. In addition, another standout stock was PLX, which hit its ceiling price at the start of the session following news of a share sale. Overall, although the market recovered in points, it still lacked strong capital inflow support.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 12.54 points (+0.69%), closing at 1,831.55 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 12.62 points (-3.98%), reaching 304.86 points. Liquidity across all three stock exchanges reached approximately 17 trillion VND, corresponding to about 672 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers with a net selling value of 5,755 billion VND, of which the value of put-through sales in VIC accounted for about 5,000 billion VND. Conversely, FPT continued to be strongly bought net with a value of 257 billion VND. Foreign investors have been increasing their net buying of FPT in recent sessions, leading to more positive price movements.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index recorded a slight recovery, however, the increase was accompanied by a narrow trading range and liquidity remained low. Market breadth was relatively balanced, while foreign investors continued their net selling streak. The oil and gas sector attracted capital during the session due to expectations related to government divestment stories. Meanwhile, the financial sector continued to lead overall market liquidity, a trend that has become increasingly clear since the end of May 2026.

Technically, the VN-Index currently remains above the MA50 line, while the RSI indicator fluctuates around 42. However, given that demand has not yet shown strong spread and the recovery process remains unconvincing, the market is likely to remain in a consolidation phase. For market sentiment to significantly improve, a recovery driven by strong demand at the current support level is needed, accompanied by increased liquidity and a wider price increase range. This would be a crucial signal reinforcing expectations of a sustainable uptrend in the second half of 2026.

Foreign investors have not yet stopped their net selling trend, even though market valuations have adjusted to significantly more reasonable levels compared to the peak in Q3/2025. Recently, global capital flows have mainly focused on AI-driven stories, while US-Iran tensions and high oil prices continue to pressure economies dependent on oil imports. We believe that the capital flow trend could reverse if geopolitical tensions ease, thereby triggering a reallocation of funds to markets and sectors not related to AI. Notably, foreign investors were strong net buyers during the market's breakout in 2025, with the banking sector playing a leading role during that period. 

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.