Vietnam Insight

▶ Selling pressure persisted throughout Tuesday's trading session, with selling spreading across more sectors, notably real estate, banking, and securities stocks. Most leading stocks declined, putting pressure on the index, while FPT and ACB bucked the trend and rose. Liquidity surged during the heavy selling, reaching approximately the 20-day average. Foreign investors continued their net selling streak, with a net selling value of nearly 550 billion VND.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 18.07 points (-0.98%), closing at 1,826.47 points; the HNX-Index bucked the trend, rising 9.61 points (+3.15%), reaching 314.79 points. Total liquidity across all three exchanges reached approximately 20 trillion VND, corresponding to over 812 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers with a net selling value of VND 546 billion, with HPG, HDB, and ACB being the stocks most heavily sold. Conversely, FPT and VHM were the stocks most frequently bought.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index traded relatively quietly in the first half of the session amidst low liquidity. However, selling pressure intensified sharply in the early afternoon (despite overall market liquidity remaining low), with the real estate sector leading the decline. Negative sentiment then spread to other sectors, and the market continued to correct by the end of the session.

The VN-Index closed just above the MA50 line (around 1,800 points), which is also the upper boundary of the previous sideways consolidation zone. Meanwhile, the RSI approached the oversold zone at around 39 points. After the recent correction, market valuations have become significantly more attractive, and we expect technical rebounds to appear around these key support levels in the next few trading sessions.

In the base-case scenario: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressures, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be added to MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital inflows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could target the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In the negative-case scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index (re-testing the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings. Investors should limit the use of margin trading during this period when the trend is not clearly defined.