Vietnam Insight

▶ The market was highly volatile in the first trading session of the week, closing with a nearly 19-point decrease, mainly due to the impact of VIC and VHM. These two stocks fell by 3% and 2.5% respectively, contributing around 12 points to the overall index decline. The SBV’s decision to exclude industrial park and social housing loans from the real estate credit caps also brought positive results for some real estate and industrial park stocks. Overall, under downward pressure, market liquidity plummeted to a record low, with trading volume only 60% of the average value of the last 20 sessions. Foreign investors continued to be net sellers, with net selling value remaining unchanged at VND 647 billion.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by 18.95 points (-1.02%), closing at 1,844.54 points; The HNX-Index reversed its trend, rising 10.24 points (+3.47%), reaching 305.18 points. Total trading volume across all three exchanges was approximately 16 trillion VND, corresponding to about 581 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued net selling, with a net selling value of 647 billion VND, with ACB, BSR, and MSB being the most heavily sold stocks. Conversely, MWG and FPT were the stocks that saw significant net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: Liquidity decreased amidst already weak capital flows, causing the VN-Index to fall nearly 19 points, mainly due to downward pressure from VIC and VHM. The State Bank of Vietnam's decision to exclude industrial park and social housing loans from the real estate credit caps helped attract capital back into industrial park and residential real estate stocks.

The VN-Index is currently trading around the important support zone of 1,800–1,850 points. In the past, low liquidity around this support zone often preceded breakouts. In the base scenario, easing Middle East tensions and the possibility of a pact in June will help reduce pressure from oil prices and improve global investor risk sentiment. As observed in the previous market breakout in 2025, improved liquidity, a clear breakout, spread across sectors, and the return of foreign capital will be crucial conditions for establishing a more sustainable upward trend. The target range for the VN-Index will be 2,000-2,100. Technically, the VN-Index closed above the MA50 while the RSI remained in the neutral zone around 43. The index is currently in a consolidation phase within the 1,850–1,950 point range.

In the base case: A peace agreement between the US and Iran could help reduce inflationary pressure, improve global growth prospects, and support capital flows back to emerging markets, including Vietnam, in the second half of 2026. Furthermore, Vietnam could be included in MSCI's upgrade watchlist and begin receiving passive capital flows from September 2026 after being upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE. In this scenario, the VN-Index could aim for the 2,000–2,100 point range.

In a negative case: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index (retesting the 1,580 point level).

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation and strong business growth, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have accumulation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to disburse funds in anticipation of Q2 and Q3/2026 earnings. Investors should limit margin using when the trend is not clearly defined.