Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap down of 4.73 points, continuing the correction trend from the previous session. The correction pressure was on banking stocks following information about credit growth controls at some banks that acquired 0 VND banks. Vingroup stocks acted as a pillar supporting the market today after previous correction sessions. Foreign capital inflows showed no signs of returning, with foreign investors continuing to net sell for more than 10 consecutive sessions.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index closed down 10.76 points (-0.57%), at 1,863.67 points; the HNX-Index increased 3.33 points (+1.18%), reaching 285.56 points. Market liquidity during the correction session remained low and below the 20-day average, at 20.9 trillion VND, corresponding to 764.2 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell 812 billion VND today, with the largest net selling value in HDB, FPT, and SHB. Conversely, ACB, VNM, and MWG were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical Perspective: Rumors about temporarily halting credit growth for some banks until the end of Q2/2026, implying that these banks had previously been allocated higher credit growth limits due to their participation in the restructuring of weak banks, have created selling pressure on the banking sector. However, market liquidity suggests that the reaction remains relatively orderly rather than panic-driven. Amidst a market correction following several positive trading sessions, VHM returned to its role as a pillar supporting the index, contributing nearly 9 points to the VN-Index. Overall, the VN-Index continues to fluctuate within a narrow range with average liquidity, consolidating around the 1,850–1,950 point range and awaiting a new group of leading stocks for the next upward movement. To attract foreign capital back to emerging markets like Vietnam, a weaker US dollar and lower (or at least no further) global interest rates will play a crucial role, alongside the prospect of corporate earnings growth. Additionally, an agreement between the US and Iran, along with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, could put downward pressure on oil prices and reduce the likelihood of major central banks continuing to raise interest rates, thereby creating a more favorable environment for emerging markets, including Vietnam. Technically, the VN-Index closed above the MA50, while the RSI remained in the neutral zone around 52. The VN-Index is currently in a consolidation phase within the 1,850–1,950 point range.

In the base case: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have yet to reach a definitive agreement to end the war. Lack of catalysts is keeping the VN-Index sideways around its previous peak of 1,850-1,950 points. The return of foreign capital along with stability in the Middle East will be crucial factors triggering an upward trend in the market.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downward trend could be further reinforced.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth results, rather than solely focusing on the fluctuations of the VN-Index (which has risen recently due to the significant impact of the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings.