Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap up of 3.12 points despite the downward pressure from the previous session. The downward pressure intensified as Vingroup stocks faced strong selling pressure. Simultaneously, foreign capital inflows showed no signs of returning, with foreign investors continuing to net sell during the session. Stocks in the banking, securities, and real estate sectors attempted to recover during the session, but this was insufficient to curb the market's downward trend.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index fell 1.85 points (-0.10%) to 1,884.18 points; the HNX-Index rose 6.35 points (+2.23%) to 278.15 points. Market liquidity remained low during the correction, below the 20-day average, at 21.6 trillion VND, corresponding to 840.5 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell 937 billion VND today, with the largest net selling value in MSB, HPG, and VIC. Conversely, PDR, ACB, and SSI were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical Perspective: As the VN-Index consolidates around its recent peak, the notable improvement in liquidity within the banking sector, coupled with a more positive market breadth, is seen as a very positive signal. Historically, the financial sector has often played a leading role in breakouts at peaks, thereby shaping the overall market trend. Improved liquidity, a clear breakout, and broader spread across sectors will be crucial factors in confirming an uptrend in the coming period. Meanwhile, stocks related to VIC are under pressure to correct after a strong rally in recent weeks. If the impact from this group were removed, the VN-Index could have closed in positive territory. Despite the current positive developments, market liquidity will need further improvement, implying stronger investor participation and a gradual shift towards a "risk-on" state. This requires not only an improvement in domestic cash flow but also clearer signals from external factors, especially the signing of a formal agreement between the US and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which could further drive oil prices down. Technically, the VN-Index closed above both the MA20 and MA50, while the RSI continued to remain in the neutral zone around 55.

In the base scenario: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the war. The lack of catalysts keeps the VN-Index sideways around the previous peak of 1,850-1,950 points. The return of foreign capital along with stability in the Middle East will be important factors triggering an upward trend in the market.

In the negative scenario: Prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth results, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). In our observation, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings.