Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading week with a slight gap down of 0.76 points, continuing the correction trend of the previous session. The downward pressure quickly reversed thanks to positive news from the Middle East conflict and the cooling of oil prices below USD100/barrel. However, foreign capital inflows showed no signs of returning, with foreign investors continuing to heavily net sell during the session. The market recovered with low liquidity, led by Vingroup stocks at the important resistance level of 1,900.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 8.90 points (+0.47%), reaching 1,886.03 points; the HNX-Index rose 4.29 points (+1.60%), reaching 271.80 points. Market liquidity in the recovery session decreased sharply compared to previous sessions and was below the 20-day average, at VND 20.3 trillion, corresponding to 784.8 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to heavily net sell VND 2,009 billion today, with the largest net selling value in MSB, HPG, and ACB. Conversely, MSN, HDB, and VIC were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical Perspective: Despite positive developments related to the US-Iran peace agreement and the decline in oil prices, the VN-Index did not react as positively as expected. Low liquidity indicates that capital flows remain quite cautious, while foreign investors continue to heavily net sell. Investor sentiment remains cautious due to the constantly changing statements between the US and Iran, as well as the fluctuating oil prices. A concrete agreement along with the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz would be necessary to improve expectations and strengthen market confidence. The VN-Index continues to consolidate in the upper end of the 1,850–1,950 point range, with recent capital flows mainly concentrated in the financial sector. Historically, the financial sector often plays a leading role in breakouts from peaks, thereby shaping the overall market trend. Improved liquidity, a clear upward trend, and the spread of capital across various sectors will be key factors in confirming an uptrend in the second half of 2026. Technically, the VN-Index closed above both the MA20 and MA50. Meanwhile, the RSI continued to cool down to around 55, indicating that market momentum has somewhat slowed after the recent rally.

In the base scenario: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached a definitive agreement to end the conflict. The lack of catalysts keeps the VN-Index sideways around its previous peak of 1,850-1,950 points. The return of foreign capital along with stability in the Middle East will be important factors triggering an uptrend in the market.

In the downside scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth results, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). In our observation, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings.