Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap up of 7.21 points, continuing the correction trend of the previous session. The downward pressure from Vingroup stocks weighed heavily on the market, with the index falling below the important resistance level of 1,900. Foreign investors resumed strong net selling after a previous session of reduced net selling. The market experienced a correction with low liquidity at its historical peak.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index closed down 16.34 points (-0.85%), at 1,896.89 points; the HNX-Index increased 3.04 points (+1.16%), reaching 264.37 points. Market liquidity during the correction session decreased sharply compared to previous sessions and was below the 20-day average, at 23.3 trillion VND, corresponding to 751.4 million shares traded. Foreign investors resumed strong net selling of VND 1,685 billion today, with the largest net selling value in VIC, FPT, and MBB. Conversely, VPB, VCB, and LPB were the stocks with the most net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: After the previous volatile session, the VN-Index mostly declined slightly with low liquidity, and foreign investors returned to net selling. Market breadth was relatively balanced, and Vingroup-related stocks did not contribute positively to the index on the derivatives expiration day as usual. The VN-Index continued to consolidate around the peak within the 1,850–1,950 point range, with recent capital flows concentrated in the financial sector. In the past, during breakouts near peaks, the financial sector often played a leading role, setting the stage for the subsequent trend of the entire market. Improved liquidity, a decisive upward move, and wider spread of capital flows will be important factors to confirm the possibility of a successful breakout. Technically, the VN-Index closed above both the MA20 and MA50, although it briefly fell below the MA20 during the session. The RSI continued to cool down to around 59p, indicating that momentum has somewhat weakened after the recent rally.

In the underlying scenario: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the conflict. The lack of catalysts is keeping the VN-Index sideways around its previous peak of 1,850-1,950 points. However, we believe that if geopolitical news supports a sharp drop in oil prices, capital will quickly return to the market.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth results, rather than solely focusing on the fluctuations of the VN-Index (which has risen recently due to the significant impact of the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings.