Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap down of 5.83 points, continuing the correction from the previous session. Selling pressure weighed heavily on real estate and banking stocks, causing the index to drop by more than 30 points at one point. Thanks to support from foreign investors in the afternoon session, the index recovered impressively and closed above the reference level. The market had its highest trading volume of the month.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index closed slightly higher by 0.30 points (+0.02%), reaching 1,913.23 points; the HNX-Index increased by 1.83 points (+0.71%), reaching 261.33 points. Market liquidity in the recovery session increased sharply compared to previous sessions due to significant profit-taking pressure in the morning. Liquidity was above the 20-day average, at 34.3 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,370.1 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell slightly, with a net selling value of 4 billion VND today, with the largest net selling values in MBB, ACB, and VNM. Conversely, VCB, VIC, and FPT were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical Perspective: A sharp sell-off during the session as the VN-Index approached its historical peak attracted foreign capital back into the market, with net selling value narrowing significantly from over 666 billion VND at the end of the morning session to just over 4 billion VND at the close. At one point, the VN-Index fell by more than 50 points, testing the 1,850 point level, where bottom-buying demand reappeared as many stocks returned to valuation levels similar to the early stages of the US-Iran trade war. Strong demand quickly helped the index recover to near its opening price, thus forming a long-legged candlestick at the end of the session. The current developments are still consistent with our base scenario, as the market continues to consolidate in the 1,850–1,950 point range and awaits the emergence of a leading sector to create momentum for the next trend. Technically, the VN-Index closed above both the MA20 and MA50, although it briefly fell below the MA20 during the session. The RSI has cooled down to around 64, indicating that the upward momentum has somewhat subsided after the recent surge. Liquidity has improved significantly, reflecting more active participation from investors and a renewed sense of trading activity.

In the base scenario: The ceasefire agreement has improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have yet to reach a definitive end to the conflict. The lack of catalysts keeps the VN-Index sideways around its previous peak of 1,850-1,950 points. However, we believe that if favorable geopolitical news leads to a sharp drop in oil prices, capital will quickly return to the market.

In the downside scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth results, rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index's fluctuations (recent gains are largely driven by the VIC group). In our observation, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings.