Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading week with a gap down of 5.04 points, continuing the correction from the previous session. Profit-taking pressure on Vingroup stocks continued to weigh on the index today; however, strong buying pressure from state-owned bank stocks and state-owned equity stocks helped to curb the market's decline. State-owned equity stocks contributed positively to the index thanks to information about a meeting to restructure state capital. The index continued to experience significant net selling pressure from foreign investors.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 6.34 points (+0.33%), reaching 1,927.94 points; the HNX-Index rose 1.83 points (+0.71%), reaching 259.25 points. Market liquidity in the recovery session increased significantly compared to previous sessions thanks to strong demand, exceeding the 20-day average, reaching VND 29 trillion, corresponding to 962.4 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell VND 610 billion today, with the largest net selling value in ACB, HPG, and VHM. Conversely, VCB, VNM, and MSB were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical Perspective: A meeting between leaders of ministries, sectors, and localities, along with 23 state-owned corporations and companies, is scheduled to take place on the morning of May 19th to review the draft Decision of the Prime Minister on criteria for classifying state-owned enterprises. This positive information has attracted increased capital flows into state-owned enterprise stocks such as Vietcombank, BIDV, VietinBank, PVS, BSR, etc. With the VN-Index trading around its recent peak, improved liquidity and the trend of capital shifting to the financial sector are seen as positive signals for the market's recovery. However, to form a clearer breakout, market breadth needs to improve, and liquidity must spread to other accumulating stock groups such as banking, securities, real estate, and construction materials. Technically, the VN-Index is currently still in an accumulation phase within the 1,850–1,950 point range, maintaining above the MA50 line with narrowing ATR and relatively low liquidity. Except for the group of stocks related to VIC, which has experienced a strong recovery, most stocks with good fundamentals are still in a wait-and-see state and continue to form a price accumulation base. The market is currently awaiting a sufficiently strong driving factor as well as the emergence of a leading group of stocks to initiate the next upward trend.

In the underlying scenario: The ceasefire agreement has improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the conflict. The lack of catalysts is keeping the VN-Index sideways around its previous peak of 1,850-1,950 points. However, we believe that if geopolitical news supports a sharp drop in oil prices, capital will quickly return to the market.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth results, rather than solely focusing on the fluctuations of the VN-Index (which has risen recently due to the significant impact of the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings.