Vietnam Insight

Ruling out the possibility of Fed rate cuts this year. US stock futures edged lower on Monday as investors awaited Nvidia’s closely watched earnings report later this week for fresh signals on the durability of the artificial intelligence-driven market rally. Earnings from major retailers including Walmart and Target are also expected to offer insight into how the Middle East-driven energy price shock is affecting US consumer spending. Meanwhile, oil prices continued to rise after President Donald Trump warned that Tehran is running out of time to reach a deal with Washington, while Iranian media reports indicated negotiations remain far apart. Last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed to new record highs as gains in technology and AI-related shares extended further, though both indexes pulled back on Friday as Treasury yields jumped amid growing inflation concerns. Recent economic data also pointed to accelerating US inflation, leading traders to fully rule out any Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Accumulate at the peak. VN-Index ended the final trading session of the week at 1,921.60 points (-3.86 points, -0.20%), with trading volume around the 20-session average. Market breadth remained negative, with 120 advancers and 187 decliners. Stocks contributing positively to the index included GAS, BSR, and GVR, while VIC, VPB, and BID weighed on the market. Foreign investors recorded net selling of VND801bn, mainly concentrated in HPG, VHM, and VPB.

Trading Strategy: At this stage, investors may consider focusing on stocks with sideways accumulation price structures and strong earnings growth, rather than concentrating solely on fluctuations of the VN-Index (which has been heavily influenced by the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, retail and securities have exhibited accumulation price patterns, improving business performance, and are suitable for investors to accumulate ahead of Q2 and Q3/2026 earnings results.

Current trading portfolio: VGC, PDR, VPB, FOX

Watchlist: HPG,  KDH, HDB