Vietnam Insight

▶ The market continued its upward trend on Thursday, recording an overall gain of 27 points and pushing the index to 1,925. This was the third consecutive day of gains, and foreign investors also contributed to the index's rise by reversing to net buying. However, liquidity did not improve significantly as the index fluctuated around its previous peak, with the total trading value across all three exchanges lower than the 20-day average and lower than the previous session. Banks were a bright spot, with many stocks recording good gains such as VPB, ACB, BID… The duo VIC and VHM rebounded, along with FPT stock with a 4.53% increase, also contributing significantly to supporting the index.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 27.09 points (+1.43%), closing at 1,925.46 points; The HNX-Index increased by 0.45 points (+0.18%), reaching 255.07 points. Total trading volume across all three exchanges was approximately 23 trillion VND, corresponding to over 746 million shares traded. Foreign investors reversed to net buying with a value of 254 billion VND, with the strongest net buying being VIC (+160 billion VND) and MSN (+143 billion VND). Conversely, the stocks experiencing net selling were VHM (-175 billion VND) and TCB (-124 billion VND).

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index started the morning session relatively positively, with improved cash flow in large-cap stocks, especially the banking sector. However, the afternoon session was mainly driven by the VIC group amidst subdued overall market liquidity. In our observation, at market peaks, the banking sector needs to show clearer improvements in cash flow and positive market breadth to create momentum for the VN-Index to confidently enter a more sustainable growth phase.

Technically, the VN-Index is currently trading above key moving averages, while the RSI is gradually moving into the overbought zone. Therefore, fluctuations at the peak are unavoidable. Overall, the VN-Index is likely to continue consolidating in the 1,850 – 1,950 point range, awaiting the emergence of a sector strong enough to lead the next growth phase.

In the base scenario: The ceasefire agreement has improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have yet to reach a definitive end to the war. The lack of catalysts keeps the VN-Index sideways around its previous peak of 1,850-1,950 points. However, we believe that if favorable geopolitical news leads to a sharp drop in oil prices, capital will quickly return to the market.

In the negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation price structures and strong business growth results, rather than solely focusing on the fluctuations of the VN-Index (which has risen recently due to the significant impact of the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have consolidation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to invest in anticipation of Q2 and Q3 2026 earnings.