Macro/ Strategy

High inflation in April

Headline inflation in April 2026 increased by 5.46% YoY and 0.84% MoM. The average CPI increase in 4M2026 was 3.99% YoY, still below the 4.5% target set by the Government for 2026.

The high inflation in April was due to increased fuel costs caused by the Iran conflict. Although fuel prices cooled down compared to March, the transportation group decreased by 0.81% MoM; in term of YoY, the transportation group had the highest increase among the CPI components, rising by 11.08% YoY. Fuel costs have dragged up increases in other groups, especially housing, electricity, water, fuel, and construction materials. 

Production remained strong, but concerns about inflation began to emerge

In April 2026, the Industrial Production Index (IIP) grew by 9.9% YoY (+3.0% MoM). In 4M2026, IIP increased by 9.2% YoY. However, PMI data painted a less optimistic picture. The PMI in April 2026 fell to 50.5 points from 51.2 points in March. 

Interbank interest rates stabilized again

After temporary and seasonal spikes over 10% in the first three months of 2026, interbank interest rates stabilized.