Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap up of 7.36 points, continuing the recovery from the previous session. Profit-taking pressure on Vingroup stocks continued to weigh on the index today; however, strong buying pressure from oil and gas stocks and state-owned bank stocks curbed the market's decline. Oil and gas stocks performed positively today thanks to news of the equitization of energy companies. The index also experienced net selling pressure from foreign investors for more than 15 consecutive sessions, with an average daily selling value of up to VND 1,000 billion.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index closed down 2.73 points (-0.14%), at 1,898.37 points; the HNX-Index increased 1.34 points (+0.53%), reaching 254.62 points. Market liquidity in the correction session increased sharply compared to previous sessions thanks to strong demand, exceeding the 20-day average, reaching VND 32.3 trillion, corresponding to 1,109.0 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell VND 1,435 billion today, with the largest net selling values in FPT, ACB, and VHM. Conversely, MSB, MSN, and BSR were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical View: The VN-Index fluctuated around its previous peak amidst strong volatility in the VIC group of stocks (the main driver supporting the market's strong recovery recently), at times falling to the floor price before narrowing its decline and closing around the reference level. Liquidity in sectors such as oil and gas, finance, and utilities showed positive improvement. Overall, this was a relatively positive trading session, with the market briefly falling by over 30 points but quickly recovering towards the end, indicating continued buying support. Currently, the VN-Index is consolidating around the 1,850–1,950 point range, with liquidity remaining at an average level and intraday fluctuations not being excessive. Simultaneously, the index remains above the MA20, MA50, and MA200 lines, suggesting that the medium-term uptrend remains dominant.

In the underlying scenario: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have yet to reach a definitive end to the conflict. The lack of catalysts keeps the VN-Index trading sideways around its previous peak of 1,850–1,950 points. However, we believe that if favorable geopolitical news causes a sharp drop in oil prices, capital will quickly return to the market.

In the negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: During this period, investors can focus on selecting stocks with sideways consolidation and strong business growth rather than solely focusing on the VN-Index fluctuations (due to the significant impact from the VIC group). Based on our observations, many stocks in sectors such as real estate, banking, construction materials, and securities have accumulation price structures, improving business results, and are suitable for investors to disburse funds in anticipation of Q2 and Q3/2026 business results.