Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading week with a sharp gain of 16.56 points thanks to positive news regarding the easing of the Middle East conflict. Domestic investor demand could not overcome the net selling pressure from foreign investors, who had been under net selling pressure for eight consecutive sessions. Simultaneously, the correction in Vingroup's stock group after a strong rally put significant pressure on the index. Meanwhile, rubber stocks such as GVR, PHR, etc., benefited from the expanding upward trend in commodity prices.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index closed at the reference point, down slightly by 0.04 points (-0.00%), to 1,854.06 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 0.62 points (-0.25%), to 250.04 points. Market liquidity in the session fluctuated slightly, remaining below the 20-day average at VND 23.2 trillion, corresponding to 799.9 million shares traded. Foreign investors heavily sold VND 1,031 billion today, with the largest net selling values in ACB, FPT, and HPG. Conversely, POW, VRE, and MWG were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical Perspective: The VN-Index continues to fluctuate around key resistance levels, and the trend remains largely unchanged. Liquidity remains low, and capital flows have not yet shown widespread distribution and lack consensus across sectors. This leads to the risk of unpredictable market volatility as dominant stocks weaken. In the short term, the market needs to overcome the important resistance level of 1,860 points to continue towards the historical peak of 1,920–1,950 points before facing correction pressure. The nearest support level is at the psychological mark of 1,800 points, while a stronger support zone is identified around 1,680 points.

In the underlying scenario: The ceasefire agreement has improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the conflict. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to head towards its previous peak of 1,950 points.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: Investors should limit chasing rallies and selectively choose stocks showing improvement in business operations. At the current stage, capital flows tend to favor sectors linked to domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signs of capital inflow have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade story, thereby maintaining a certain attractiveness to investors.