Vietnam Insight

Highlights:
_ On the afternoon of April 16, Prime Minister Le Minh Hung received and worked with a delegation of U.S. businesses led by Brian McFeeters, Acting President of the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council (USABC).

_ The disbursement progress of public investment capital as of the first week of April 2026 has improved, but the overall picture remains slow and inconsistent. Currently, 18 ministries and central agencies still have disbursement rates below 1%...

_ On April 17, General Secretary and President To Lam and his spouse, along with a high-level Vietnamese delegation, departed Nanning (Guangxi), successfully concluding their state visit to China from April 14–17, 2026.

_ Mr.Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon have reached a 10-day ceasefire agreement.

Assessment: The market recorded a positive trading week, but the gains were mainly driven by the VIC group. Market breadth remained weak as other large-cap stocks mostly moved sideways. Therefore, market sentiment is still cautious, similar to last week. Although news on geopolitical tensions shows signs of improvement, the market remains cautious and somewhat desensitized. Domestically, capital flows will focus on estimated Q1 earnings results and the AGM season, which continue to be the main drivers for improving liquidity in this phase. However, strong sector divergence means stock selection must be more selective.

Technical view: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,817.1 (+3.84%) on the weekly chart with stable liquidity. Foreign investors continued net selling, mainly in VHM and FPT. The market is expected to face corrective pressure next week as it approaches the 1,860 level. Key psychological support levels are around 1,800 and further at 1,680.

_ Investment ideas: Investors should avoid chasing rallies as the primary trend remains range-bound. Priority should be given to sectors tied to domestic drivers (banking, construction materials, and securities) and stocks with strong Q1 earnings growth. For the real estate sector, after a deep correction phase, signs of returning cash flow have emerged in recent sessions.