Vietnam Insight

▶ Market movements remained largely unchanged compared to yesterday's trading session, with VIC shares continuing to dominate and serving as the sole pillar supporting the VN-Index. VIC and VHM contributed over 22 points to the index's increase, while the VN-Index only recorded a 19-point gain (+1.07%). Several consumer goods stocks such as MSN and MWG also attracted capital and closed the session up 1-2%. Most other stocks saw slight corrections, with market breadth heavily skewed towards declines, with 213 stocks falling and only 105 rising. Thus, the VN-Index closed at 1,819, not far from its previous peak before the US-Iran conflict.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 19.18 points (+1.07%), closing at 1,819.83 points. The HNX-Index rose 3.77 points (+1.49%), reaching 256.49 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges remained stable at 29.4 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately over 1 billion shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell today, with FPT (-524 billion VND) and VHM (-503 billion VND) being the two stocks experiencing the strongest net selling. Conversely, VIC, SSI, and ACB were the stocks with the highest net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index continued to rise by nearly 20 points, surpassing the psychological resistance level of 1,800 points. However, this increase was mainly driven by the VinGroup stocks, contributing nearly 26 points. If this factor is excluded, the market actually fell by 7 points today. Today's performance is not significantly different from previous sessions; the market remains in a technical upward trend rather than a consensus uptrend. In the short term, the index is likely to continue towards the 1,820–1,840 point range before a correction occurs. In the medium term, the VN-Index is still in a consolidation phase, fluctuating within the 1,580–1,800 point range.

In the base-case scenario: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the conflict. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to move sideways around 1,580-1,800 points.

In a negative-case scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further strengthened.

Strategy: Investors should limit chasing rallies and selectively choose stocks showing improvement in business performance. At this stage, capital flows tend to favor sectors with domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signs of capital inflow have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade story, thereby maintaining a certain attractiveness to investors.