Vietnam Insight

▶ Reacting to negative news from the global market as a ceasefire agreement remains uncertain, the VN-Index held its ground well and even closed in positive territory, largely thanks to VIC. In fact, this stock contributed 14 points to the index's increase, while the VN-Index only rose 8.96 points at the close. Without the support from VIC and VHM, the overall market would have been in the red. Liquidity remained flat, and foreign investors continued net selling, although the net selling value was not significant.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index rose 8.96 points (+0.51%), closing at 1,758.96 points; the HNX-Index fell -0.25 points (-0.92%), reaching 250.98 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges remained flat at 24.5 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 996 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued net selling, with the net selling value narrowing to 98 billion VND. The stocks with the strongest net selling were FPT, VCB, and VPB. Conversely, the stocks with strong net buying were VNM, VIC, and HPG…

▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index increased by nearly 9 points, but liquidity decreased, falling below the 20-day average. However, excluding the approximately 15-point contribution from the Vin group of stocks, the market is actually down about 6 points. This indicates that the index has experienced three consecutive correction sessions amidst low liquidity. Currently, the VN-Index is approaching the resistance zone around 1,770 points. Nevertheless, the market has not yet recorded selling pressure or a sharp correction, showing that capital flows remain relatively stable, continuing to absorb and accumulate stocks. In the short term, the index is likely to continue fluctuating in the 1,750–1,780 point range while awaiting information from the earnings season at the end of the month.

In the base case: The ceasefire agreement has improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the conflict. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to move sideways around 1,580–1,800 points.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further reinforced.

Strategy: Investors should limit chasing rallies and selectively choose stocks showing improvements in business operations. Currently, capital flows tend to favor sectors with domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signs of capital returning have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade narrative, thereby maintaining a certain appeal to investors.