Vietnam Insight

▶ Receiving positive news from both the global and domestic markets, the VN-Index opened with excitement, gaining nearly 30 points and maintaining explosive gains throughout the session. The US-Iran ceasefire and FTSE's confirmation of the upgrade roadmap acted as a dopamine boost, causing large and small stocks to surge. Liquidity on the HOSE also jumped to 35 trillion VND amidst the euphoria. The financial sector led the flow of money, with many stocks hitting their upper limit accompanied by exceptional liquidity. The upgrade to a Secondary Emerging Market is a significant milestone, affirming the global investment community's recognition of the Vietnamese stock market and contributing to attracting large-scale international investment capital.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by +79.01 points (+4.71%), closing at 1,756.55 points. The HNX-Index rose +6.62 points (+2.68%), reaching 253.32 points. Liquidity across all three exchanges surged to 37.5 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately over 1.4 billion shares traded. Foreign investors continued net selling, with a selling value of 585 billion VND. Typical stocks experiencing net selling included VIC, MBB, and VCB... Typical stocks experiencing net buying included HPG, FPT, and ACB…

▶ Technical perspective: Following two positive news items – President Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran (resulting in a sharp drop in oil prices) and FTSE's official confirmation of the Vietnamese market's upgrade roadmap – the VN-Index opened the session with a strong 40-point gain. The upward momentum extended for the remainder of the trading session with improved liquidity. The VN-Index is now attempting to retest the upper edge of the 1,580-1,800 sideways range; we believe there will be psychological resistance around 1,800 points. Until the US and Iran reach an agreement to completely end the war and provide global investors with clear direction for the remainder of 2026, we believe the VN-Index will continue to fluctuate sideways. The index closed right at the MA50, with the RSI at a neutral level of 56.

In the base scenario: The ceasefire agreement improved investor sentiment, but the two sides have not yet reached an agreement to completely end the war. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to move sideways around 1,580-1,800 points.

In the negative scenario: The prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. In the event that the market continues to definitively lose the 1,580 support zone, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend may continue to be reinforced.

Strategy: Investors should limit chasing rallies and selectively choose stocks with improved business performance. At the current stage, capital flows tend to prioritize sectors linked to domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signals of capital returning have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade story, thereby maintaining a certain attractiveness to investors.