Vietnam Insight

▶ The VN-Index continued its trading week within a narrow range and closed with a slight increase. Liquidity continued to evaporate compared to the previous session, with the total market transaction value reaching just over 16 trillion VND, of which HOSE accounted for nearly 15 trillion VND. Technically, the index formed a Doji candlestick, indicating hesitation from both buyers and sellers, a sentiment quite understandable given the anticipation of the official upgrade results and the uncertainty from global geopolitics. The bright spot today belonged to the securities sector, with many representatives performing well, such as VIX (+6.9%), SSI (+2%), VCI (+3.4%), and SHS (+4.2%).

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by +2.55 points (+0.15%), closing at 1,677.54 points; the HNX-Index increased by +1.67 points (+0.68%), reaching 246.70 points. Market liquidity continued to evaporate to 16 trillion VND, corresponding to only about 703 million shares traded. Foreign investors widened their net selling to -824 billion VND, with strong net selling continued to be recorded in the banking sector. Typical stocks experiencing net selling included TCB, HDB, and MBB... Typical stocks experiencing net buying included VIC, VCK, and PVD…

▶ Technical perspective: Overall, the trading session remained subdued in terms of liquidity, as investors maintained a wait-and-see stance ahead of two key events this week: the mid-term review on market reclassification and the current negotiation deadline between the US and Iran. Toward the end of the session, capital flows showed a notable rotation into the securities sector, driven by expectations of positive news in the early morning of April 8, 2026. Meanwhile, other sectors have yet to see any meaningful improvement in liquidity.The VN-Index is currently consolidating around the MA200, with a continued narrowing of its trading range and RSI at a neutral level. This reflects a typical accumulation pattern ahead of major information catalysts, where buyers maintain a moderate allocation while sellers are reluctant to exit positions after a prolonged period of significant price corrections in recent months.

Base case scenario: Although the outcome of the conflict in the Middle East remains uncertain, recent signals suggest that both sides have taken steps to de-escalate tensions and move toward negotiations. Amid this period of heightened volatility, the VN-Index continues to trade sideways within the 1,580–1,800 range.

Worst case scenario: A prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could further constrain global oil supply, driving oil prices higher for longer. This scenario would increase the risk of stagflation—persistently high inflation alongside weak economic growth. Historically, such an environment has been unfavorable for equity markets, potentially leading to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. VN-Index decisively lost the key support level at around 1,580 with limited following recovery would further confirms the downtrend. 

Strategy: Investors may consider gradual accumulation during market pullbacks. However, given that geopolitical risks remain uncertain, we recommend maintaining a moderate equity exposure to effectively manage portfolio risk. At this stage, capital flows are showing a preference for sectors supported by domestic drivers, such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, following a period of deep correction, recent sessions have indicated a return of capital inflows. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade narrative, sustaining its relative attractiveness to investors.