Macro/ Strategy

Energy cost raised the concern of the inflation

In March 2026, Vietnam headline CPI was 4.65% YoY, the highest increase in March in the latest 5 years. If the higher energy cost caused by the Iran war is persistent, the cost pass through from suppliers to customers will weaken overall spending power. To limit the pass‑through, the government is accepting a budget deficit, cutting fuel import tariffs, shortening domestic fuel price adjustment cycles, and requiring local refineries to run at full capacity to stabilize supply.

Our base case for VNINDEX is 1600-1800

We are updating a base case scenario for the VNINDEX at the 1,600 – 1,800 points range, corresponding to a P/E of approximately 12.5-13.5. This outlook is based on several potential catalysts, including signs of de-escalation in international conflicts, positive news from the upcoming annual shareholder meetings, and the FTSE rebalancing results to be announced in April. Our base case this time is the worst case in our latest strategy report.

2025 financial landscape implies a market still searching for direction  

By grouping sectors into Expansion, Slowdown, Contraction, and Recovery based on revenue and profit trends, many heavyweight sectors—banks, basic resources, and technology—were stuck in a slowdown. They still grow but slow. With so many large-cap sectors losing momentum, the market lacks a clear leader. Real estate, retail and financial services could lead a future rally, but the current macro environment does not favor them. For a sustained bull market, banks, basic resources and technology would need to reaccelerate—and investors are waiting for the next earnings announcement to see whether that shift begins. For now, the market’s most likely path remains a sideways drift in the 1600–1800 range.

The barbell strategy recommendation is for the equity portfolio

Mixing the high allocation to defensive stocks with the small allocation to commodity-related stocks may be suitable for the current volatility. Utilities, and dividend stocks may protect the portfolio from extreme fluctuations. At the same time, oil and chemical-related stocks may have upside potential from the geopolitical risks. Our picks for the strategy are REE, QTP, TV2, VEA, DPM, PVD and GAS.