Vietnam Insight

▶ Fluctuating in sync with the global market, VN-Index experienced a slight correction in Thursday's trading session with lower liquidity than the 20-day average and lower than the previous session. VHM continued to rise to its upper limit and contributed the most to supporting the index, contributing more than 7 points to the overall positive index movement. In addition, most stocks on the market were in the red, with a significant bias towards declining stocks (244) compared to rising stocks (82). Thanks to a sudden net buying transaction of over 4,000 billion VND in VPL, the trading value of foreign investors recorded a net buying session after a series of persistent net selling days.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by -8.11 points (-0.48%), closing at 1,694.82 points; the HNX-Index decreased by -1.1 points (-0.44%), reaching 250.36 points. Market liquidity decreased slightly to 29 trillion VND, corresponding to approximately 982 million shares being traded. Foreign investors reversed to net buying of nearly 3,000 billion VND, with VPL alone accounting for over 4,000 billion VND in net purchases. Excluding VPL transactions, foreign investors were still net sellers today. Typical stocks experiencing net selling included VHM, VCB, and VIC... Stocks with net buying outside of VPL included MSN, VCK, and SSI.

▶ Technical perspective: After a series of positive recovery sessions, the VN-Index experienced a slight correction with liquidity remaining low. The narrow trading range and declining liquidity reflect cautious sentiment from both buyers and sellers. This development is relatively consistent with the continued geopolitical risks and high oil prices. Currently, the VN-Index is mainly trading within the 1,580–1,800 point accumulation zone. The index continues to close above the MA20 and MA200 moving averages, while the RSI fluctuates around the neutral zone.

In the underlying scenario: Although the outcome of the conflict in the Middle East is not yet entirely clear, many signals indicate that both sides have proactively reduced tensions and are moving towards negotiations recently. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to trade sideways around 1,580–1,800 points.

In a negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. If the market continues to decisively lose the 1,580 support level, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend could be further reinforced.

Strategy: Investors may consider making partial investments during market corrections. However, given the continued geopolitical risks, we recommend maintaining a moderate proportion of stocks to control portfolio risk. At this stage, capital flows tend to favor sectors with domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signs of capital inflow have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade story, thereby maintaining a certain attractiveness to investors.