Vietnam Insight

▶ Thanks to positive news from the global market, with expectations of a ceasefire, the VN-Index's recovery momentum widened with a relatively impressive trading session, helping the index regain the 1,700-point mark. VHM and VIC acted as the driving force supporting the index, contributing nearly 17 points in total, with VHM hitting its ceiling price right from the start of the session - following news of a high dividend payout ratio. The securities and aviation sectors were also bright stars with good gains after attractive discounts from their peaks. Liquidity improved, although it remained lower than the 20-day average, as foreign investors continued their net selling streak and showed no signs of a reversal.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 28.44 points (+1.7%), closing at 1,702.93 points; the HNX-Index increased by 0.48 points (+0.19%), reaching 251.46 points. Market liquidity reached VND 31.7 trillion, an improvement compared to yesterday's session, corresponding to approximately over 1 billion shares traded. Foreign investors widened their net selling range with a net selling value of VND 866 billion, with the most significant net selling recorded in VIC (-VND 1,248 billion), FPT (-VND 135 billion), and BSR (-VND 120 billion). Conversely, the stocks with the most net buying were MSN, HPG, and SSI.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index opened positively, rising approximately 40 points, in line with the recovery of global stock markets as the prospect of a ceasefire in the Middle East became clearer. Liquidity improved slightly, but remained relatively low. Technically, the index briefly lost the MA200 line last week but quickly regained it and maintained its recovery momentum in subsequent sessions, thereby consolidating the 1,580 point level as a very strong support level. Currently, the VN-Index is approaching a retest of the upper boundary of the sideways trading range (1,580 – 1,800), formed from Q3/2025. Momentum indicators are also gradually stabilizing, with the RSI returning to the neutral zone around 48. Notably, the index closed above both the MA20 and MA200, indicating an improvement in the short- and medium-term trend.

In the baseline scenario: While the outcome of the conflict in the Middle East remains unclear, many signals indicate that both sides have proactively reduced tensions and are moving towards negotiations recently. During this volatile period, the VN-Index continues to trade sideways around 1,580-1,800 points.

In the negative scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. In the event that the market continues to definitively lose the 1,580 support zone, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend may continue to be reinforced.

Strategy: Investors may consider partially allocating funds during market corrections. However, given the continued geopolitical risks, we recommend maintaining a moderate proportion of stocks to control portfolio risk. At the current stage, capital flows tend to prioritize sectors linked to domestic momentum such as public investment, banking, and construction materials. For the real estate sector, after a period of deep discounts, signals of capital returning have appeared in recent sessions. Meanwhile, the securities sector continues to be supported by the market upgrade story, thereby maintaining a certain attractiveness to investors.