Company Insight

For 2026, we assume Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade will achieve credit growth of 15%, in line with the system-wide credit growth target for the banking sector. We forecast NIM to remain broadly stable at 2.64%, which is slightly more conservative than management guidance, leaving room for potential upside should lending yields improve further. Asset quality is expected to remain solid, with the NPL ratio maintained below 1%, while credit costs are projected at around 0.5%. Under these assumptions, profit before tax (PBT) is projected to grow by 14.9% in 2026. We also expect the bank to maintain a cash dividend payout of approximately 10%. The private placement of the 6.5% stake is still in progress; if successfully completed, it would further strengthen VCB’s CAR.
Looking ahead, we expect foreign capital inflows to gradually improve in 2H2026, particularly as Vietnam progresses toward emerging market status. This could serve as a catalyst for VCB’s valuation to normalize toward its historical average P/B multiple.

Based on our Residual Income (RI) valuation approach and peer comparison using the P/B multiple, we update our 2026 target price for VCB to VND79,800 per share