Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened with a gap up of 3.69 points after a strong recovery in the previous session, however, with relatively low liquidity. The index failed to maintain its positive momentum and quickly lost the important MA-200 support level as net selling pressure from foreign investors continued for 10 consecutive sessions. Viettel stocks had a positive trading session following the news of Viettel Corporation's capital increase with VTP and VGI shares.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index decreased by 13.56 points (-0.82%), to 1,644.63 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 1.46 points (-0.58%), to 248.21 points. Market liquidity continued to decline sharply during the correction session, remaining below the 20-day average, at VND 23.5 trillion, corresponding to 912 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued to net sell VND 746 billion today, with the largest net selling value in FPT, VCB, and DGC. Conversely, MWG, DCM, and ACB were the stocks that saw net buying.

▶ Technical perspective: After a strong recovery, the market's upward momentum has stalled as expectations of a short-term ceasefire begin to weaken. Foreign investors continued their net selling trend, while low liquidity reflected the overall cautious sentiment of the market. The VN-Index is currently fluctuating around the MA200 line after only briefly surpassing it in the previous session, indicating that the recovery remains technically weak. In terms of valuation, many stocks are still trading at significant discounts compared to their Q3/2025 peaks and are still in the accumulation phase. Meanwhile, investors on the sidelines are cautious, not ready to chase the market in the current context, and tend to wait for more attractive discounts or clearer supporting factors before returning to accumulation.

From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify the market bottom. Historically, the VN-Index usually confirms a bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40% and peaks around 60-70%. With the current figure hovering around 36%, data shows that many stocks have fallen significantly recently.

In the base scenario: The VN-Index is expected to hold the 1,580-point support level in the short term as investors await clearer signals of easing geopolitical tensions. If tensions ease, pressure on global oil prices could ease, thereby opening up the possibility of the Fed resuming interest rate cuts sooner. This could help improve risk sentiment in the market and support the stock market.

In the downside scenario: Prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could further tighten global oil supply, keeping oil prices high for an extended period. This scenario increases the risk of stagflation (high inflation coupled with low economic growth). Historically, such environments are often unfavorable for the stock market and could lead to a deeper correction in the VN-Index. In the event that the market continues to definitively lose the 1,580 support zone, accompanied by weak recovery sessions, the downtrend may continue to be reinforced.

Strategy: Investors may consider investing in small portions during market dips; however, given the uncertain geopolitical situation, we recommend maintaining a moderate proportion of stocks to manage risk. During this period, priority should be given to sectors benefiting from domestic factors such as public investment, banking, and construction materials; at the same time, dips due to cross-margin call pressure may create opportunities to buy at attractive prices.