Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

The U.S. launched a new trade investigation involving 16 key partners on March 11. Other trading partners under investigation for excess capacity include Taiwan (China), Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Singapore, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Switzerland and Norway.

On March 19, 2026 (Thursday this week), the FTSE Russell Policy Advisory Board will officially convene to review the criteria related to Vietnam’s potential market upgrade.

On March 11, the IEA announced that its member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves. Despite this announcement, oil prices still increased during the trading session on March 11.

Assessment: After a very sharp decline of more than 100 points earlier this week, the market is entering a technical rebound phase with low liquidity, forming a new equilibrium zone. Four key factors to monitor going forward: 1) Geopolitical tensions (U.S. – Israel – Iran): If oil prices remain above USD 100, the risk of stagflation and global supply chain disruptions could continue to increase. 2) U.S. trade policy. 3) Federal Reserve monetary policy. 4) Positive domestic supporting factors, including the AGM season and news regarding market upgrade prospects. We believe investors should prioritize stocks benefiting from domestic growth drivers and currently trading at attractive valuation levels.

Technical View: The VN-Index closed the week at 1,696 (-71.6 points; -4.05%) with high trading liquidity. The sharp decline at the beginning of the week was largely driven by geopolitical news and the surge in oil prices. Although the selling pressure has eased, the current rebound is primarily technical in nature. The market is expected to continue trading within the range of 1,650 – 1,800 points in the near term.

Investment Ideas: Investors may consider a range-trading strategy within the 1,650 – 1,800 band, while maintaining a moderate equity allocation given that geopolitical risks remain present. Additionally, investors can focus on sectors benefiting from domestic growth drivers, particularly stocks that may have experienced indirect selling pressure from cross-margin calls, which could create opportunities to accumulate at lower valuations.