Vietnam Insight

▶ In Monday’s trading session (February 23), the market opened on a positive note and maintained strong upward momentum throughout the day. The index closed near its intraday high at 1,860 points, with gains broadly distributed across sectors. State-owned and oil & gas stocks staged a strong comeback, with most tickers hitting their ceiling prices. On the other hand, foreign investors unexpectedly recorded heavy net selling, primarily concentrated in FPT, with a net value of nearly VND 1,139 billion.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index advanced 36.05 points (+1.98%) to 1,860.14, while the HNX-Index gained 4.76 points (+1.86%) to 261.83. Total market liquidity reached VND 25 trillion, improving from the previous session, equivalent to more than 0.85 billion shares traded. Foreign investors turned to net selling of VND 1,212 billion overall, with notable net buying observed in KDH, VIC, and DGC. Conversely, prominent net selling was recorded in FPT, VCB, and VPB.

▶ Technical View: The VN-Index continued its strong upward momentum from the beginning of the session and maintained gains through the close. Market sentiment appears to have turned increasingly optimistic; however, liquidity remains relatively modest compared to the magnitude of the rally. The index is expected to advance toward the upper bound resistance at 1,900 points, though the uptrend may face challenges should trading value fail to show convincing improvement. If the positive trend is further reinforced alongside sustained liquidity expansion, the VN-Index could enter a consolidation phase, thereby establishing a clearer recovery trajectory.

From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index has tended to confirm a bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and typically peaks when it reaches 60–70%. With the current reading hovering around 40–45%, the data suggests that upside potential remains for a broad range of equities.

Strategy: Market pullbacks present opportunities for investors to accumulate positions. We recommend focusing on stocks with solid earnings performance and favorable growth prospects for 2026 that have yet to fully reflect such fundamentals in their price performance, including select private banks, retail, securities, and steel names. For stocks that have already recorded strong gains, such as state-owned banks and industrial park real estate developers, a selective approach is warranted, and investors should avoid chasing at elevated price levels.