Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a 7.12-point gain after the recovery from the previous session. Foreign investors maintained strong selling throughout the session but reversed to net buying at the end. Positive information about NVL's business results helped boost sentiment in the real estate sector.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 14.06 points (+0.77%), to 1,829.04 points; the HNX-Index increased slightly by 3.41 points (+1.35%), reaching 256.13 points. Market liquidity improved compared to the previous session, but remained below the 20-day average, reaching 32.9 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,087 million shares traded. Foreign investors net bought 689 billion VND today, with the largest net buying value in HPG, MSN, and BID. Conversely, VIC, ACB, and MWG were typical net selling stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: Positive Q4/2025 earnings results reinforced the VN-Index's recovery momentum. Market breadth improved, and liquidity increased significantly in the afternoon session, coinciding with the release of most financial reports. This development is generally consistent with our expectations as stated in previous reports. Technically, the RSI indicator remains in the neutral zone (around 52), while the VN-Index continues to signal an uptrend by firmly maintaining its position above the 50-day moving average (MA50). Assuming liquidity continues to improve—especially after the Lunar New Year holiday—we expect the VN-Index to return to its most recent peak.

From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms a bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40% and peaks around 60-70%. With the current figure above 43%, the data suggests that there is still room for growth for most stocks.