Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap up of 1.24 points despite strong selling pressure from the previous session. The index faced strong selling pressure from foreign investors throughout the session and traded sideways around the reference level. The index saw strong buying pressure towards the end of the session and closed at its highest point of the day, with capital concentrated on retail stocks such as MSN, MWG, and PNJ.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 12.07 points (+0.67%), to 1,814.98 points; the HNX-Index increased slightly by 0.25 points (+0.10%), to 252.72 points. Market liquidity did not improve in the index's first recovery session, remaining below the 20-day average, reaching 28.2 trillion VND, corresponding to 852 million shares traded. Foreign investors net sold VND 463 billion in today's session, with the largest net selling values in VIC, ACB, and VCB. Conversely, MSN, FPT, and PNJ were the stocks with net buying.

▶ Technical Perspective: The VN-Index recorded a positive reaction around the 1,800-point support level, with improved market breadth and capital beginning to shift towards consumer and retail stocks such as MSN, DGW, and MWG. Conversely, stocks related to Vingroup continued to face pressure as foreign investors extended their net selling streak after a year of outstanding growth. The current correction shows signs of slowing down, evidenced by weakened liquidity and narrowed price fluctuations. At present, we have not observed signs of widespread sell-offs. Accordingly, we expect the VN-Index to gradually stabilize and recover to its nearest peak, with liquidity gradually improving, especially after the Tet holiday.

From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify the market bottom. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms its bottom when this ratio fluctuates between 30% and 40%, and peaks around 60-70%. With the current figure above 42%, the data suggests there is still room for growth for most stocks.