Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a 6.02-point gap up on the first day of the week. The market was affected by negative information related to inspections of businesses, leading to strong selling pressure in the afternoon with high liquidity, and the index fell below 1,850. Foreign investors continued to stop strong net selling in today's trading session.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index decreased by 27.07 points (-1.45%), to 1,843.72 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 5.66 points (-2.24%), to 247.30 points. Market liquidity increased again during the index correction, above the 20-day average, reaching 34.8 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,254 million shares traded. Foreign investors halted their net selling trend and made slight net purchases of 123 billion VND today, with the largest net purchases in BID, VNM, and VCI. Conversely, VCB, DGC, and MWG were the stocks with the most net selling.

▶ Technical Perspective: Negative rumors have put pressure on some specific stocks (notably VCG and ACV), causing the VN-Index to close in the red. However, the overall market picture remains fairly stable; there are currently no signs of widespread sell-offs across other sectors. The index's volatility remains within normal limits with average liquidity. This suggests a technical correction rather than a structural change in price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to cool down to a neutral level (around 54), helping to alleviate the previous excessive bullish pressure. This development is entirely within our base scenario, indicating that the market is retesting the sideways consolidation zone around 1,800 points. The current correction is considered a healthy accumulation phase. If demand increases strongly around the 1,800 – 1,850 point range, this will be an extremely positive signal for long-term buy positions.

From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify the market bottom. Historically, the VN-Index usually confirms a bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40% and peaks around 60-70%. With the current figure above 47%, the data shows that there is still room for growth for most stocks.