Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a gap up of 15.66 points after the recovery from the end of the previous session. Foreign investors returned to net buying after four consecutive sessions of strong net selling. The market approached the 1,900 mark with fluctuations during the trading session and a decrease in liquidity at the peak.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 17.46 points (+0.93%), reaching 1,896.59 points; the HNX-Index increased by 2.67 points (+1.06%), to 254.95 points. Market liquidity decreased for the second consecutive session, even though the index was approaching the 1,900 mark, but remained below the 20-day average, reaching 41.0 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,332 million shares traded. Foreign investors net bought 505 billion VND, with the largest net buying value in GAS, CTG, and PLX. Conversely, HCM, VRE, and MSN were typical net selling stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: In the context of the ongoing 14th Party Congress, market liquidity slightly decreased due to cautious investor sentiment. However, we expect cash flow to improve soon after the new leadership is finalized. The history of previous General Meetings shows that clarity in policy direction has always been the "trigger" that boosts market sentiment and activates upward momentum. This period is also a pivotal time as businesses begin to reveal their profit outlook for 2025 and growth targets for 2026. Although the VN-Index is trading in historical levels with the RSI indicator entering the overbought zone, the upward trend remains firmly maintained thanks to persistent demand from foreign investors and widespread consensus across industry groups.

Regarding liquidity trends: We expect the "money spillover" effect to continue driving the VN-Index's upward momentum. Maintaining high liquidity is a crucial foundation supporting the upward trend of the entire market.

From a statistical perspective, we monitor the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (EMA50) as an indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index usually confirms a bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40% and peaks around 60-70%. With the current figure above 50%, the data shows that there is still room for growth for most stocks.