Vietnam Insight

Highlights:

• On Jan 13, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh instructed the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to tightly control real-estate credit, preventing speculative capital flows from distorting the market.
• On Jan 14, the Fed released the Beige Book on the US economy, offering a fairly optimistic view of the near-term outlook.
• During the 4Q2025 earnings season, MBS, VIX, TCBS, DNSE, and VikkiBankS were among the first securities firms to announce their results.

Assessment: Over the past week, market breadth improved noticeably: the share of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average (MA50) rose to above 50%, and most sectors posted weekly gains. However, the real estate sector is facing negative pressure from SBV’s tightening stance on credit. We expect the market’s broadening trend to continue, rotating into stocks that have not yet rallied, likely lasting through the Lunar New Year holiday. Near-term supportive drivers include: listed companies beginning to release full-year earnings, and stable interbank liquidity as the overnight rate holds around 4.x% (down from nearly 8% at the start of the year).

Technical view:The VN-Index closed the week at 1,879 points (+11.23 points; +0.6%) with improving liquidity. Foreign investors remained net sellers during the week, suggesting mild profit-taking. The broader trend remains upward as the market continues to print new highs. A reference support zone is around 1,800 points, corresponding to the 20-day moving average (MA20).

Investment ideas: Short-term investors should consider taking profits in overheated stocks, particularly in the oil & gas, utilities, and insurance sectors, where correction pressure is elevated. For medium-term positioning, investors may begin accumulating stocks in the securities, steel, and technology sectors, as these groups have yet to participate meaningfully in the current rally.