Vietnam Insight

▶ The index opened the trading session with a 3.05-point gap up after reaching a new peak in the previous session. Foreign investors continued their strong net buying for the fourth consecutive session, pushing the index to a historical high, surpassing the 1,850 mark in the previous session and approaching 1,900. During the session, the market's gains and the correction in the Vingroup group of stocks created a positive ripple effect across many sectors.

▶ At the close of trading, the VN-Index increased by 9.43 points (+0.50%), reaching 1,877.33 points; the HNX-Index increased by 4.78 points (+1.93%), reaching 251.88 points. Market liquidity showed impressive growth compared to previous sessions, indicating strong demand, exceeding the 20-day average and continuously increasing, reaching 45.3 trillion VND, corresponding to 1,581 million shares traded. Foreign investors made net purchases of VND 1,083 billion, with the largest net purchases in VCB, VPB, and HPG. Conversely, VRE, VHM, and STB were the typical net selling stocks.

▶ Technical perspective: The VN-Index closed slightly higher by 0.5%. Although the index's increase wasn't overly impressive, internal market signals showed a clear improvement in structure. In recent sessions, the market has shown notable divergence: large-cap stocks, especially those within the Vingroup ecosystem, are undergoing a correction phase, while capital flows are tending to spread positively to other sectors.

Market breadth improved significantly today, with over 240 stocks closing higher. This development indicates that capital is gradually spreading beyond the VN30 group, instead of focusing solely on the leading stocks in the initial recovery phase. Some notable points:

Mid-cap stocks: Many mid-cap stocks have begun to record positive price movements, showing they are catching up and narrowing the gap with the early gains of blue-chip and leading stocks.

Liquidity and foreign capital flows: Liquidity shows signs of improvement, supported by the continuous net buying trend of foreign investors in recent weeks, which is an important pillar for forming a sustainable uptrend.

From a statistical perspective, we track the percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) as a key indicator to identify market bottoms. Historically, the VN-Index typically confirms a cycle bottom when this percentage fluctuates between 30% and 40%. Currently, the index is at 39%.