Vietnam Insight

▶ The market started 2026 in the green; however, the general stock landscape was not very positive. The current characteristic remains high divergence, as gains were almost entirely concentrated in the VinGroup duo including VIC-VHM and the Oil & Gas group, while other sectors recorded a losing session, especially the Securities group with many representatives such as SSI, VCI, VIX… all decreasing by over 3%. Liquidity showed improvement as matching volume surged above the 20-session average.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 3.91 points (+0.22%), closing at 1,788.40 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 2.03 points (-0.82%), reaching 246.74 points. Total market liquidity reached 28 trillion VND, corresponding to more than 988 million shares traded. Foreign investors still recorded a net selling session, with a net value of 735 billion VND, in which prominent net selling values were recorded in VIC (-182 billion VND), VIX (-158 billion VND), and FPT (-105 billion VND). On the other side, typical net buying included STB, VRE, PVD…

▶ Technical perspective: VN-Index experienced strong volatility as the index approached the resistance zone of 1,780 – 1,800 points. Liquidity remained at a moderate level with cautious cash flow; the market moved stably within short-term fluctuations, and there were no signs of large-scale capital exit. Signals from the MACD continue to support the recovery phase; however, profit-taking pressure at the resistance level may cause short-term volatility, with the market's nearest support level around 1,730 points. 

Base-case Scenario: The market has recovered positively and climbed above 1,700 (temporarily escaping the 1,600 - 1,700 sideways range) with improved liquidity, broadening market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. However, the market will face certain resistance as it nears its old peak and may see fluctuations around 1,800 before cash flow improves further following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative-case Scenario: Downward momentum continues to increase with rising trading volume on the sell side, and no "bottom-fishing" demand appears around the 1,600 - 1,650 level. In this scenario, the market could continue toward the 1,500 support zone and even lower price ranges for testing.

Strategy: Investors should carefully select stocks as the VN-Index score is heavily influenced by the performance of the VIC group. Medium and long-term investors can begin partial disbursements in stock groups with strong business results and attractive discounts, such as Banking, Finance, and Public Investment. Shorter-term investors may look for improved cash flow and price action to select stocks in sectors such as Power/Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology.