Vietnam Insight

▶ To conclude the 2025 calendar year, the VN-Index ended on a high note, officially closing the year with a 40% overall gain. Key blue-chip stocks such as VIC, VHM, and HDB recorded strong growth, playing a vital role in supporting the index. Cautious sentiment and limited disbursement ahead of the long holiday kept the market relatively subdued, with liquidity levels remaining below the 20-session average. Generally, the current market remains highly polarized and has yet to see a definitive leading sector emerge.

▶ At the close of the session, the VN-Index rose 17.59 points (+1%) to finish at 1,784.49 points; the HNX-Index fell 1.73 points (-0.69%) to 248.77 points. Total market liquidity stood at only 24 trillion VND, corresponding to over 804 million shares traded. Foreign investors continued their net buying streak with a net value of 714 billion VND. Notable net buying was recorded in STB (132 billion VND), VPL (119 billion VND), and MWG (111 billion VND). Conversely, the most significant net selling occurred in HDB and LPB.

▶ Technical perspective: The market continued its strong upward momentum, breaking through the psychological resistance level of 1,780 points and establishing a new peak at 1,784 points. However, liquidity remained low and market divergence was obvious as cash flow concentrated primarily on large-cap stocks, which is insufficient to confirm a sustainable uptrend. While MACD signals are reinforcing the recovery phase, profit-taking pressure at the resistance zone may trigger short-term volatility.

Base-case Scenario: The market has recovered positively and climbed above 1,700 (temporarily escaping the 1,600 - 1,700 sideways range) with improved liquidity, broadening market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. However, the market will face certain resistance as it nears its old peak and may see fluctuations around 1,800 before cash flow improves further following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative-case Scenario: Downward momentum continues to increase with rising trading volume on the sell side, and no "bottom-fishing" demand appears around the 1,600 - 1,650 level. In this scenario, the market could continue toward the 1,500 support zone and even lower price ranges for testing.

Strategy: Investors should carefully select stocks as the VN-Index score is heavily influenced by the performance of the VIC group. Medium and long-term investors can begin partial disbursements in stock groups with strong business results and attractive discounts, such as Banking, Finance, and Public Investment. Shorter-term investors may look for improved cash flow and price action to select stocks in sectors such as Power/Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology.