Vietnam Insight

▶ The market continued its upward momentum in the first session of the week. With strong consensus from the VinGroup family, the index successfully closed with a 25-point gain, moving closer to the previous peak around the 1,800 level. Other sectors showed relative divergence; while Energy and Insurance performed well, others lagged. However, liquidity saw a severe drop, reaching only 24 trillion VND—well below the 20-day moving average. On a positive note, foreign investors narrowed their net selling streak, with a net sell value of just under 100 billion VND.

▶ At the close, the VN-Index surged by 25.04 points (+1.45%) to finish at 1,754.84 points, while the HNX-Index rose by 0.69 points (+0.28%) to reach 251.22 points. Total market liquidity plummeted to 24 trillion VND, corresponding to just over 785 million shares traded. Foreign investors reduced their net selling pressure compared to last Friday, recording a net sell value of 88 billion VND. Significant net selling was seen in BWE and VIC, while FPT, STB, and VJC led the net buying side.

▶ Technical perspective: The market continued its recovery in terms of points, yet broad-based participation across sectors remained limited, with the primary gains driven by the VinGroup family and the Oil & Gas sector. The VN-Index continues to head toward the 1,800-point threshold to test its previous peak; however, liquidity remains at a low level. As cash flow stays cautious, volatility is likely to occur as the index approaches key resistance levels. The market trend remains within the 1,700 – 1,800 range, and stronger liquidity sessions with wider sector rotation are needed to confirm a new trend.

Base-case Scenario: The market has recovered positively and climbed above 1,700 (temporarily escaping the 1,600 - 1,700 sideways range) with improved liquidity, broadening market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. However, the market will face certain resistance as it nears its old peak and may see fluctuations around 1,800 before cash flow improves further following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative-case Scenario: Downward momentum continues to increase with rising trading volume on the sell side, and no "bottom-fishing" demand appears around the 1,600 - 1,650 level. In this scenario, the market could continue toward the 1,500 support zone and even lower price ranges for testing.

Strategy: Investors should carefully select stocks as the VN-Index score is heavily influenced by the performance of the VIC group. Medium and long-term investors can begin partial disbursements in stock groups with strong business results and attractive discounts, such as Banking, Finance, and Public Investment. Shorter-term investors may look for improved cash flow and price action to select stocks in sectors such as Power/Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology.