Vietnam Insight

▶ The market narrowed its decline in the final trading session of the week. Despite opening with a downward Gap and even dipping below the 1,670 mark at one point during the session, strong bottom-fishing cash flow in the afternoon caused many stocks to reverse and form "pin bar" candles, helping the VN-Index end the session with a decrease of only 13 points. Accordingly, the bright spot belonged to the Financial group as many banking and securities stocks turned from red to green, such as VCI, SSI, STB; GAS and MWG also recorded good price recoveries. Liquidity showed improvement as stock prices reached more attractive discount levels, signaling a technical recovery phase early next week. However, foreign investors reversed to net selling after 5 consecutive net buying sessions, with large net selling values in VIC and VHM.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index decreased by 13.05 points (-0.75%), closing at 1,729.80 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 0.45 points (-0.18%), reaching 250.53 points. Market-wide liquidity improved to 35 trillion VND, corresponding to more than 1.26 billion shares traded. Foreign investors reversed to net selling after a streak of 5 consecutive net buying sessions, with a net value of 1,148 billion VND, in which prominent net selling values were recorded in VIC, VHM, VRE, and DGC. On the other side, typical net buying included VJC, STB, and VND…

▶ Technical perspective: The market fluctuated strongly over the past two sessions, at one point touching the 1,800 mark but also dropping sharply below the 1,700 mark in response to information related to Vingroup's project implementation plans. Although the correction pressure was quite significant, a positive point emerged when the demand to buy stocks at the sub-1,700 level helped the VN-Index recover impressively and close at the highest level of the session. The index is expected to continue trading within the 1,700-1,800 range before establishing a new trend.

Base-case Scenario: The market has recovered positively and climbed above 1,700 (temporarily escaping the 1,600 - 1,700 sideways range) with improved liquidity, broadening market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. However, the market will face certain resistance as it nears its old peak and may see fluctuations around 1,800 before cash flow improves further following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative-case Scenario: Downward momentum continues to increase with rising trading volume on the sell side, and no "bottom-fishing" demand appears around the 1,600 - 1,650 level. In this scenario, the market could continue toward the 1,500 support zone and even lower price ranges for testing.

Strategy: Investors should carefully select stocks as the VN-Index score is heavily influenced by the performance of the VIC group. Medium and long-term investors can begin partial disbursements in stock groups with strong business results and attractive discounts, such as Banking, Finance, and Public Investment. Shorter-term investors may look for improved cash flow and price action to select stocks in sectors such as Power/Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology.