Vietnam Insight

▶ In Wednesday's trading session, the market continued its upward momentum amid investor optimism, moving a step closer to the previous peak established in October 2025. The spotlight remained on the financial sector, with several Banking and Securities representatives recording strong gains, such as SHB, STB, SSI, and VCI. Additionally, while VIC temporarily stalled, VHM provided support, contributing positively to the overall index margin. Despite intense fluctuations throughout most of the session, strong buying pressure toward the end of the afternoon helped the market close with a gain of over 10 points, accompanied by liquidity hovering around the 20-session average. Foreign investors ramped up their activity, with net buying value surging to 1,081 billion VND, focusing heavily on Banking stocks.

▶ At the closing bell, the VN-Index rose by 10.67 points (+0.6%) to end at 1,782.82 points; the HNX-Index edged down 0.05 points (-0.04%) to 119.90 points. Market-wide liquidity remained flat at 27.3 trillion VND, corresponding to over 927 million shares traded. Foreign investors marked their 4th consecutive net buying session, with the net value skyrocketing to 1,078 billion VND. Notable net purchases were recorded in STB, MBB, and SSI, while top net sells included DGC, VIC, and HPG.

▶ Technical perspective: The market extended its upward momentum with a gain of over 10 points, approaching the strong resistance level of 1,800 and the VN-Index's historical peak. This move was accompanied by a slight increase in liquidity compared to the 20-session average. Furthermore, the return of foreign investors has bolstered market sentiment, marking the fourth consecutive session of net buying. Compared to previous sessions, today’s rally showed improved market breadth, particularly within the Financial sector. We maintain our outlook that the VN-Index will continue its trend toward retesting the major 1,800 resistance zone.

Base-case Scenario: The market has recovered positively and climbed above 1,700 (temporarily escaping the 1,600 - 1,700 sideways range) with improved liquidity, broadening market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. However, the market will face certain resistance as it nears its old peak and may see fluctuations around 1,800 before cash flow improves further following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative-case Scenario: Downward momentum continues to increase with rising trading volume on the sell side, and no "bottom-fishing" demand appears around the 1,600 - 1,650 level. In this scenario, the market could continue toward the 1,500 support zone and even lower price ranges for testing.

Strategy: Investors should carefully select stocks as the VN-Index score is heavily influenced by the performance of the VIC group. Medium and long-term investors can begin partial disbursements in stock groups with strong business results and attractive discounts, such as Banking, Finance, and Public Investment. Shorter-term investors may look for improved cash flow and price action to select stocks in sectors such as Power/Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology.