Vietnam Insight

▶ The market had a session retesting its former peak, supported significantly by a few pillar stocks; specifically, the duo VIC - VHM hitting their daily upper limits contributed 27 points, which was greater than the overall gain of the VN-Index and offset the adverse impact from other stock groups. Most representatives of the Banking group declined, with the exception of STB which hit its ceiling price. Overall, the current market is highly polarized as cash flow is concentrated only in a few specific stocks, while the majority are either moving sideways or decreasing. Liquidity remained stable around the 20-session average as the index approached its old peak. A positive point is that foreign investors maintained steady net buying of over 720 billion VND, marking the 3rd consecutive net buying session.

▶ At the end of the trading session, the VN-Index increased by 21.12 points (+1.21%), closing at 1,772.15 points; the HNX-Index decreased by 1.76 points (-0.68%), reaching 255.47 points. Total market liquidity stood at 29.6 trillion VND, corresponding to more than 1.01 billion shares traded. Foreign investors marked their 3rd consecutive net buying session with a net value of 715 billion VND, in which prominent net buying values were recorded in MWG, MBB, and VIX. On the other side, typical net selling included HDB, LPB, and FPT…

▶ Technical perspective: The market continued its upward momentum with a gain of over 21 points, maintaining its position above the 1,750 mark and approaching the VN-Index's historical peak. This movement was supported by improved liquidity, which surpassed the 20-session average. Simultaneously, the return of foreign net buying has reinforced the market's uptrend. However, the index's rally showed high divergence, concentrating heavily on the Vingroup stock family, which led to downward corrections in other sectors over recent sessions. Looking ahead, the VN-Index is expected to recover toward its previous peak at the 1,800 threshold in the coming period.

Base case Scenario: The market has recovered positively and climbed above 1,700 (temporarily escaping the 1,600 - 1,700 sideways range) with improved liquidity, broadening market breadth, and the return of foreign investors. However, the market will face certain resistance as it nears its old peak and may see fluctuations around 1,800 before cash flow improves further following the conclusion of the Party Congress in early 2026.

Negative case Scenario: Downward momentum continues to increase with rising trading volume on the sell side, and no "bottom-fishing" demand appears around the 1,600 - 1,650 level. In this scenario, the market could continue toward the 1,500 support zone and even lower price ranges for testing.

Strategy: Investors should carefully select stocks as the VN-Index score is heavily influenced by the performance of the VIC group. Medium and long-term investors can begin partial disbursements in stock groups with strong business results and attractive discounts, such as Banking, Finance, and Public Investment. Shorter-term investors may look for improved cash flow and price action to select stocks in sectors such as Power/Electricity, Industrial Parks, and Technology.